So, this time last week, it was pretty hot, wasn’t it?
Record temperatures recorded on the Tuesday as the temperature in the UK passed 40 degrees for the first time.
If you’re on Facebook, I’m pretty confident you saw many people’s reaction to what they felt was a massively over the top response to the heat.
“It was tough, but a huge shout out to everyone who survived the 10-week heatwave of 1976” was a common one.
My reaction to that was the same as when I hear or read about anyone surviving anything – I’ll have a quick looksie at how many didn’t survive (because that, surely, is more relevant).
Google there were at least 16% excess deaths compared to the previous years at the same time for the duration of the heatwave, rising to 30% on the hottest days.
Whilst records from the time aren’t accurate enough to show exactly why all those people died, the is fact that 700 people a day more than usual were dying during those peak days.
Which were a full 5 degrees cooler than the temperatures last week.
So, without wanting to get into a discussion about the whole thing (no need for any replies along those lines), it seems pretty safe to say that the 1976 approach wasn’t “optimal”, at least.
It’s an example of what can be called ‘Survivors bias’
“the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility”
In the Second World War, the Air Force took to reinforcing the wings, tail and centre of their bombers as that was where the most damage was on returning planes.
Neglecting to consider that the planes that weren’t returning were the ones getting hit in the other areas.
Those returning planes actually showed the opposite – the areas damage could be taken and planes continue to fly.
Those who bemoan “health and safety” because “I was fine” forgetting about those who were needlessly maimed or died.
And we’re all guilty of ‘Survivors bias’ at times.
Concentrating on those that we’ve seen that have passed the ‘selection process’ of achieving results with a particular method.
And missing those that didn’t.
Hearing about people who’ve lost weight whilst doing some diet or exercise method.
And not being aware of the much bigger number who didn’t get results.
People in this industry (myself included) don’t publicize those that didn’t’ get results with them.
I share pictures and stories of those that are losing weight, increasing energy levels and mood and so on.
Maybe those that have struggled at points but gone on to success.
I’m probably not going to share a post that says “Here’s Bob. Bob joined us two months ago and hasn’t been in after he was quite sore from his first Session. He’s not been responding to my attempts to contact him, he’s not checked any of the educational materials we provide or engaged with any of the support and accountability systems and I’ve seen on Facebook that he mentioned he’s gained weight”.
And you won’t see gyms sharing details of the 90%+ of their members who don’t go regularly enough to get any results.
Or Slimming Clubs posting about those that “gained” last week.
All you can do is two things;
1. Try and vaguely ascertain success rates of a method. Ours isn’t 100%. But it’s way higher than any conventional gym I’ve ever seen – our 200+ 5* reviews suggest so.
An imprecise, but relatively easy method is to ask “How many people do I know that have XYZ? And how many of them were in significantly better shape six months later?”
2. Determine if following the method (as “prescribed”) will automatically lead to the results you desire.
– Going to the gym three times a week won’t automatically get you in better shape.
– Following the programme set by 90%+ of Gym Instructors won’t automatically improve our strength, fitness and health (after the first few weeks, at least)
– Cutting out food groups, not eating at certain times or eating “more” or “less” of anything won’t automatically mean you lose weight
If you do our Sessions at the intensity the coach is there to recommend and eat in a average way that ‘ticks the boxes needed’ in a way we teach people, I can 100% guarantee it will lead to results.
So, if you’re a member and not getting results, talk to us – let’s figure out what we can tweak (and, probably more importantly, what’s been stopping you making those changes already).
If you’re not a member and have finally had enough of wasting money on things that haven’t gotten you results, here is where you change that —> www.myrise.co.uk/apply
Much love,
Jon ‘Glass Animals’ Hall
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RISE in Macclesfield was established in 2012 and specialise in Group Personal Training weight loss programmes for those that don’t like the gym and find diets boring and restrictive!
